What is a “Master” Gauge conversion? Additional Considerationsġ7. What are transient curves and how do they affect the assessment of whether the balls were tampered with?ġ6. What happens if the temperature in the pre-game and during the first half are slightly different than those used in projections?ġ5. Why are the Patriot balls expected to be wetter than the Colt balls?ġ4. Why is it more likely that the Patriot balls were inflated at halftime before four Colt balls were measured?ġ3. Why is it more likely that the Logo Gauge was used in the pre-game?ġ2. Why does it not matter whether the Logo or Non-Logo Gauge was used in the pre-game?ġ1. Could tampering account for the variability seen in the Patriot halftime measurements? Probability of key factorsġ0. Why do the Patriots halftime measurements have greater variability than the Colt balls?ĩ. Why did Exponent conclude that the balls were “statistically significant” in the Wells Report?Ĩ.
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How do the Results change if adjustments are made to the 3rd Colt half-time measurement?ħ. What are the Results? Are the Patriot ball measurements different in a”statistically significant” way from the Colts balls?Ħ. How can we analyze the data given all of the variables involved What methods can we use? Results and data analysisĥ. What are all the variables involved in properly assessing whether the measurements are explained by environmental factors?Ĥ. What environmental factors will change the pressure (PSI) of a football?ģ. Summary of analysis Methods and VariablesĢ. Raw data as captured at halftime of the 2015 AFC Championship game as presented in the Wells Report. 3, with the information available exonerating the Patriots. Unless otherwise stated, all investigatory information on this page was provided by the Wells Report. The most likely conclusion, based on the available data, strongly points toward outcome No.
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It’s unclear whether there was or was not tampering.environmental factors cannot explain the measurements) The Patriots were likely to have tampered with the footballs, beyond reasonable doubt (i.e.While the data was not collected in a controlled scientific experiment, there was enough data collected that we can arrive at one of three general conclusions: The “Deflate Gate” (or Deflategate) scientific analysis was conducted to answer a simple question: Were the halftime measurements of the Patriot footballs below what is expected based on environmental factors? (In the NFL, each team prepares and uses its own set of balls used for offensive play, meaning the Colts and Patriots prepared and played with separate balls during the 2015 AFC Championship Game.) This page serves as a collection of those findings, with many thanks to the readers who contributed. John Leonard in his Sports Illustrated essay on Deflategate. The following analysis has been referenced in multiple places, most notably by Dr.